US Cotton Market: USDA Production And Marketing Forecast In April, Global Cotton Output Slightly Reduced

In April, the fundamentals of American cotton changed little, and the overall trend was slightly strong. The inspection of American cotton at the supply end was basically completed. According to the USDA production and marketing report in April, the adjustment of American cotton output was not obvious. In terms of new crops, the drought situation in the main production areas is still obvious at present; On the demand side, the contracted sales of American cotton in the current month were OK, but in the later stage, there was greater uncertainty due to the negotiations between the United States and other countries.

1、 International market: the global economic growth rate has been reduced, the global cotton output in April has not changed significantly, the consumption has been reduced, and the inventory at the end of the period has increased.

According to IMF According to the latest forecast of world economic growth rate, the global economic growth rate in 2025 is adjusted to 2.8%, 0.5 percentage points lower than that in 2024, especially for developed economies, especially the United States. It is expected that the economic growth rate in 2025 will be 1.8%, 1 percentage point lower than that in 2024, and for China, the economic growth rate in 2025 will be adjusted to 4%, 1 percentage point lower than that in 2024.

According to the latest USDA forecast report on global cotton supply, production and marketing in April, the total global cotton output in April is expected to be 26.32 million tons in 24/25, slightly lower than that of the previous month; Compared with the previous month, the total consumption decreased by 114000 tons to 25.26 million tons. In terms of ending inventory, the global ending inventory in April was 17.17 million tons, an increase of 115000 tons compared with the previous month. According to the forecast of global cotton in the new year, according to the latest USDA annual meeting, the global cotton output in 25/26 is expected to decrease by 25.408 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3%, the consumption is expected to be 25.909 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, the ending inventory is expected to be 16.569 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, and the import and export both increase by 8.2% (half of the increase may come from China).

2、 United States: The cotton output of the United States is basically determined this year, and the drought situation is obvious in the new year.

According to the latest USDA April global cotton production and sales forecast, the 24/25 annual output of American cotton has not been further adjusted. According to the statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of the week of March 14, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of American upland cotton+Pima cotton is 3.181 million tons, accounting for 101.3% of the estimated annual output of American cotton, 19.5% faster than the same period last year (the estimated annual output of American cotton in 2024/25 is 3.14 million tons).

As of April 14, the cumulative contracted volume of American cotton was 2.4629 million tons, down 3.85% year on year, including 155900 tons in China, down 84.62% year on year; At present, the cumulative shipment volume is 1.6741 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 6.5%.

In terms of new crops, the current drought situation in the United States is relatively obvious. In terms of Texas, the main production area in the United States, as of April 22, drought of D4 degree accounted for 16.83%, an increase of 3.07% compared with a month ago; Degree D3-D4 drought accounted for 29.99%, 1.3% more than that of a month; The proportion of drought in D2-D4 degree was 47.24%, 0.48% lower than that in a month; The drought in D1-D4 degree accounted for 58.05%, 11.61% less than that in a month. The proportion of drought in D2-D4 degree has increased significantly. This year's drought in Texas is much higher than that in 2024 and the same period in 2023, which may affect the increase of seed rejection rate of American cotton in the later period and reduce the yield‘

From the perspective of sowing, as of April 20, the cotton planting rate of 15 major cotton growing states in the United States was 11%; The same period last year was 8%, 2 percentage points faster than last year; The average level in the same period of the last five years was 10%, 1 percentage point higher than the average level in the same period of the last five years, and the planting speed in Texas was the same year on year. The thunderstorm weather in Dezhou did not hinder the seeding of new cotton, and the planting progress in Dezhou and the main production areas was slightly faster than that in the previous year.

3、 Other countries: India's output and export decreased in the new year, while its import increased. Brazil's Conab continued to raise its cotton planting area and output assessment, and its consumption also increased accordingly. There was little change in ending inventory.

According to the latest report of the Indian Cotton Association (CAI), as of March 31, 2025, CAI has evaluated the cotton balance sheet of Indian cotton in 2024/25. Compared with the evaluation last month, the output has decreased by 70000 tons, the import has increased by 50000 tons, and the export has decreased by 20000 tons. The ending inventory remains unchanged. Compared with the previous year, the beginning inventory increased by 20000 tons, the output decreased by 580000 tons, the import increased by 260000 tons, the domestic demand increased by 30000 tons, the export decreased by 210000 tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 110000 tons.

At present, the rainfall situation in India is OK, so pay attention to the subsequent rainfall changes. According to AGRICOOP, as of the week of 2025/04/10 to 2025/04/16, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton producing areas in India (93.6%) was 2.9mm, 0.8mm higher than the normal level, 3.7mm higher than the same period last year. The cumulative rainfall in the main cotton producing areas from 2025/03/01 to 2025/04/16 was 12.5mm, 1.5mm higher than the normal level.

According to the statistics released by CAI, as of the week of April 20, 2025, the weekly market volume of Indian cotton is 42000 tons, down 87% year on year; India's cotton market volume in 2024/25 is 4.4196 million tons, down 5% year on year. The cumulative listing volume of CAI reached 89% of the 24/25 annual forecast balance sheet output (4.95 million tons), 5% faster than that of the previous year.

The listing of Indian cotton fell sharply month on month, and the leading range of the listing progress narrowed year on year. Among them, the listing volume of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and northern provinces of India dropped significantly.

In Brazil, according to the latest production forecast data of 2024/25 released by CONAB in April, the total cotton output of Brazil in this year is expected to be 3.891 million tons, an increase of 69000 tons compared with the previous month. This year, the planting area continued to increase to 2.0793 million hectares, and the unit yield increased to 124.8 kg/mu.

The USDA production and marketing forecast of the supply side in April showed that the global cotton output decreased slightly, increasing by 15000 tons to 26.32 million tons compared with the previous month, which is in the middle of the past years. Considering that the current output is basically determined, it is unlikely to continue to adjust in the future; In terms of total global cotton consumption, the total USDA consumption in April decreased by 114000 tons to 25.26 million tons; In terms of ending inventory, the global ending inventory in April increased by 115000 tons to 17.17 million tons.

In terms of American cotton, the output of American cotton in this year is basically determined, and the market gradually begins to pay attention to the planting situation in the new year. The planting area of American cotton is expected to decrease in the new year. However, the drought situation in the United States is still obvious, which has a certain negative impact on the future growth of cotton. The market may trade weather factors in May, which will have a certain positive impact on American cotton. On the demand side, the recent signing of American cotton continues to maintain. Considering that the United States and other countries may sign a series of purchase agreements after negotiations, which may include the purchase of American agricultural products, thus having a positive impact on American cotton.

In general, the supply side is basically stable this year. At present, the drought situation in the main production areas of the United States is relatively obvious in the new year. The subsequent market focus turns to the weather situation in the United States. Considering that the United States may sign some purchase agreements after negotiations with other countries in the future, which may include the purchase of agricultural products, the demand side expects that the future trend of American cotton will be slightly more volatile.