PTA Futures Maintain A Weak Probability Of Oscillation.

After the Mid Autumn Festival, capital flows back to the commodity market, leading to a sharp rebound in commodity prices, and chemical products futures have strong and weak differentiation, of which PTA futures are relatively weak.

After the G20 summit, the polyester plant operation rate increased to more than 82%. Taking into account the early overdraft of the terminal orders due to the summit, the demand for polyester terminals will slowly recover after the National Day holiday. But combined with the current average low level stock level of the average 15 days and the profit margin of 100 yuan / ton, it is estimated that the polyester start-up load will remain at a high level of over 80% until the end of the year.

There is no obvious support for the cost side and later stage.

Under the background of further doubt of factory maintenance, it is predicted that PTA futures will maintain a weak probability of oscillation.

In recent years, China's economic data in August have been fully released. From the actual situation, the basic data of PMI index, real estate, automobile and credit in the manufacturing sector have improved substantially, indicating that the effectiveness of the steady growth measures in the early stage of the government is still playing a supporting role for domestic commodities.

However, taking into account the gradual increase in the country's policy of adjusting the adjustment of hot urban real estate, it is expected that the credit policy will be tight in the four quarter.

The peripheral market is more concerned about whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September.

In late August, the former Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan and the incumbent officials shouted that the rate hike would be immediate.

As expected, the market, including stocks, bonds and commodities, has also experienced a notable pullback. At present, the mainstream view of the market is that the Fed will not raise interest rates at the September Conference on interest rates, most likely to increase interest rates in December, but the market atmosphere is still relatively cautious.

At present, the PX market in Asia is still in a seasonal maintenance state. However, after October, the PX maintenance device will be restarted at home and abroad, and the newly built trust 2 million 200 thousand ton PX plant in India will be put into operation in October. Once the device is put into operation, the supply pressure of PX will increase in stages, while the current PX production profit is still 98 USD / tonne.

The price will be running weak.

From the perspective of the crude oil market, considering that Libya's crude oil output has increased 180 thousand barrels to 450 thousand barrels per day since August, Nigeria is also actively restoring crude oil supply and export. The two countries that have caused oil production reduction due to war will not agree with the frozen production agreement, while Iran has no clear intention to freeze production. Therefore, the possibility of reaching a potential frozen production agreement at the informal OPEC meeting held in Algeria at the end of September is less likely.

In the past two weeks, crude oil inventories have been falling in the US for a long time. If crude oil prices continue to drop sharply to $40 / barrel as a result of the freeze production agreement dystocia, crude oil production in the United States will be significantly suppressed. At the end of the OPEC Ministerial Conference in November, oil producing countries once again call for the sound of frozen production, and oil prices will be significantly enhanced.

In late September, early maintenance of Hengli petrochemical, Ningbo Taiwan and Tung Kun petrochemical and other devices have been restarted. In the late stage, only a set of 2 million 200 thousand tons of equipment has been planned for maintenance in October. Considering that the Far East petrochemical PTA plant has been acquired by Hua Bin group and ready to restart by machine, this means that the pace of eliminating backward production capacity in the PTA plant has not yet ended. Yisheng and other leading factories will continue the strategy of high load production control PTA cash flow this year, and whether the PTA large devices such as Yisheng and Hengli will make great efforts to stop the maintenance operation, and the PTA supply will remain at a relatively high level.